ONGC Shares: Upstream PSU companies shine amid oil surge; Oil India, ONGC shares might even see 53-58% upside

The surge in gas costs since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in late February might have emerged as a serious upside threat to India’s inflation and commerce deficit, however upstream state-owned oil firms are attractively positioned on the present juncture, analysts mentioned.

“Inventory costs of upstream PSU companies like

and Oil India have gone up 13-46 per cent prior to now six months regardless of 67 per cent rise in Brent crude value and 110 per cent hike in home administered value mechanism (APM) gasoline primarily based on windfall tax achieve issues,” world monetary advisory agency Elara Capital mentioned.

Whereas the Group of the Petroleum Exporting International locations plans to extend provide by 0.65 million barrels per day over July and August, sanctions on Russia have shaved off 1 million barrels per day from Russia, thereby boosting costs, the agency mentioned.

Elara Capital expects home gasoline costs to be revised upwards by $9 per MMBTU (Metric Million British Thermal Unit) by the top of October 2022; a key issue contributing to the constructive view on upstream PSUs.

“OPEC provide over February-April has elevated by a mere 0.1mmbpd vs a required rise of 0.8mmbpd, indicating its lack of ability to spur provide development. Even when the conflict have been to finish, sanctions in opposition to Russia wouldn’t be lifted within the brief time period, thereby bolstering bullish oil costs,” the agency mentioned.

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The agency considers to be enticing with a margin of security. ONGC’s valuation costs in a barrel of crude oil at $65, offering a substantial margin of security even when oil costs have been to appropriate 30 per cent from their prevailing ranges, Elara mentioned.

In accordance with the agency, from now until the top of the monetary yr, ONGC’s earnings per share sensitivity to a $10 per barrel change in crude oil costs is Rs 6.7.

On Oil India, Elara expressed a lot optimism, saying that every one engines of the state-owned big have been firing with upstream Numaligarh Refinery.

“OINL is benefitting on excessive crude oil costs and Numaligarh Refinery (NRL) GRM as its product slate is 70 per cent diesel for which cracks have reached >$ 40/bbl,” Elara mentioned.

ONGC, OIL financials snapshotBusinesses

Oil India’s valuation costs in crude oil at $60 per barrel and the FY23 finish earnings per share sensitivity to a $10 per barrel fluctuation in oil costs is Rs 7.3, the agency mentioned.

Oil India has smashed most targets set by brokerages in latest days on account of bettering margins led by rising crude oil costs with the inventory delivering greater than 100 per cent returns within the final one yr.

The inventory on Thursday hit 52-week-highs because it jumped over 8 per cent.

Haitong Securities in its month-to-month report on the Hydrocarbon sector mentioned that gross refining margins (GRM) of refinery firms have been breaking all obstacles.

Elara Capital has elevated ONGC and Oil India’s EPS for FY23 finish by 69 to 83 per cent and 50-61 per cent by the top of the subsequent monetary yr primarily based on greater costs of crude and gasoline and gross refining margins.

“We assume Brent crude at $95/bbl for FY23E and $90/bbl for FY24E (from $75/bbl) and APM at $7.5 per MMBtu for FY23E and $7.2 per MMBtu for FY24E (from $5.2/MMBtu),” Elara mentioned.

The advisory agency has reiterated its purchase name for ONGC and Oil India and elevated goal value for the previous to Rs 255 and that for Oi India to Rs 469 primarily based on greater EPS and a weaker longer-term home change charge at 76.5/$1 from 74.5/$1.

The targets indicate a 53-58 per cent upside for the shares from present ranges, Elara Capital mentioned.

“We worth ONGC utilizing a DCF technique, assuming 10% (unchanged) WACC. Our implied worth of ONGC & OINL 1P reserves is $5.3/boe from $4.9/boe. We worth OINL 69.6% stake in NRL at INR 99/share, assuming 5.0x FY23E EBITDA.”

(Disclaimer: Suggestions, options, views and opinions given by the specialists are their very own. These don’t signify the views of Financial Occasions)

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